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#15 UNC and NC State Both Look to Build Off of Impressive Wins in First Head to Head Matchup of the Season

1/14/2015

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                Both North Carolina and North Carolina State are coming off big wins, and are going into a faceoff with each other tonight.  On Saturday, UNC defeated then #5 Louisville due to second half and last second heroics from Marcus Paige.  This was Carolina’s best win of the season, against one of the better teams in the ACC.  On the other side, NC State also picked up its best win of the season, a home win against Duke, who was undefeated at the time.  With both teams coming off big wins, it will certainly be interesting to see which team can follow through and start up a winning streak.

                The season for UNC began with plenty of ups and downs, with losses to Iowa and Butler, but recently have lived up to their preseason expectations and potential.  With a narrow loss to Notre Dame and the win over Louisville, the Tarheels have been a lot more impressive as of late.  This is largely due to more consistency, especially from key players like Kennedy Meeks.  Meeks has been the Heels’ best player on the season 12.8 points and 8.6 rebounds per game.  He slimmed down in the offseason, which has obviously paid off.  Helping Meeks is Brice Johnson and JP Tokoto, who are two very athletic players capable of contributing a lot to their team.  The combination of these three players has helped UNC climb to second in the nation in terms of rebounding.  It will also likely to be these three players who Carolina will depend upon tonight, as they stack up very well with NC State’s big men, offensively and defensively.  With Marcus Paige dealing with a foot injury, and inconsistency from other guards, UNC needs them to play like they have been all season.   The frontcourt is an area where the Tarheels hold an advantage over their rivals from Raleigh.  While NC State’s big men were definitely impressive in the win over Duke, they still do not match up completely with UNC.  Just looking at each team’s starting lineups, this is clear to see.  The matchup with Meeks will likely be given to Kyle Washington, while Brice Johnson will likely be defended by Abdul-Malik Abu, an athletic freshmen who just recently earned a starting spot for the Wolfpack.  On top of that, JP Tokoto and Justin Jackson will need to be defended, and will draw Ralston Turner and Trevor Lacey.  This could create some mismatches, especially for whoever is matched up with Tokoto.  Carolina holds the advantage inside, and will need to exploit it in order to earn a victory in Raleigh.

                For NC State, three things must be done in order to win.  These three things are the same three that State executed well against Duke.  The first is three-point shooting.  NC State holds the advantage here when compared to Carolina.  Trevor Lacey and Ralston Turner will have to continue to be efficient against Carolina, much like they have been all season. On Sunday against Duke, they led the Pack to 10 of 16 from three point land, and an overall shooting percentage of 55%.  If the two shooters can be deadly from beyond the arc, it will greatly increase NC State’s chances of winning.  The second thing NC State must do well is play defense.  Through ACC play, NC State has held opponents to about 37% shooting, and have been able to force turnovers.  They have held opposing guards back, and have played solidly underneath.  Anthony ‘Cat’ Barber will guard Marcus Paige, and he needs to keep him out of the game, and allow NC State to hold the advantage in the backcourt.  Lastly, State needs the frontcourt to play like they did against Duke.  Beejay Anya had a career game last time out, and he could draw an assignment with Meeks or any other Carolina bigs.  Lennard Freeman will need to contribute on the glass, something which he can do very well.  NC State is undefeated when Freeman grabs 8 or more rebounds in a game, so his underneath play is key.  Kyle Washington and Malik Abu will have to contribute offensively and defensively, and be efficient in scoring.  To sum all of this up, if NC State plays with the same energy and efficiency as they did in the win over Duke, they will likely pick up a second huge win in just as many games. 

                Prediction time: NC State should be able to outplay Carolina on the perimeter.  They have done it all year long to other teams, and will probably keep it up tonight.  However, it will be very difficult for State to match up with UNC’s talent in the frontcourt.  Kennedy Meeks should have a big night, as will JP Tokoto, who could be the key to the game.  Creating mismatches underneath the basket, Carolina will be able to post up NC State’s defenders, rebound the ball, and outplay their rivals.  It will be a close game throughout, and Carolina, who holds a 22-2 record against NC State since 2003, will walk out with a win.  77-70, UNC wins.


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NC State Hands Duke it's First Loss in Convincing Fashion

1/12/2015

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Duke’s woes playing in PNC Arena continued on Sunday with an 87-75 loss to NC State, in a game which was controlled by the Wolfpack from start to finish.  NC State got a huge effort from their two main playmakers, Trevor Lacey and Ralston Turner, as well as a great game from the post players to secure a win over the then number 2 team in the nation.  For the Blue Devils, Jahlil Okafor again delivered a great performance, scoring 23 points and adding 12 rebounds, along with 3 steals and 3 blocks.  His team saw its first loss of the season, and dropped to number 4 in the AP Poll as a result, while North Carolina State picked up its signature win of the season, something that it needed to get in a tough stretch of games.

                The game started well for both teams, and Duke was able to build a lead as large as seven in the first half.  The Devils crashed the boards and looked a lot more complete with Okafor on the floor, who turned in an extremely efficient performance, something nobody else on Duke did.  Okafor did plenty of damage in the first half of this game, but NC State cracked down in the second half, constantly double teaming him and keeping him more out of the game than before.  This was key for the Wolfpack, as during their second half run, which at one point extended the lead to 19 points, they were able to keep Duke’s offense at bay by controlling its best player.

                Other than Okafor, the only bright spot for Duke was the play of Quinn Cook, the senior leader of this team, who outplayed all his teammates other than the big freshman underneath the basket.  Cook contributed 18 on 6 of 13 shooting (4-7 from three), as well as 4 assists.  Cook, after the game, stated his dislike for playing in Raleigh, a place where he has never won at.  Duke lost almost exactly two years ago when they were undefeated, and also lost to Mercer in the second round of last year’s NCAA Tournament, a game played in PNC Arena.  Cook did just about all he could for the rest of the team, but other than him and Okafor, Duke was a mere 10 of 41 from the floor.  As a team, Duke shot just about 37%, which was not nearly enough to contend with the Wolfpack and their high-powered attack.

                NC State outplayed Duke in just about all aspects of the game, and what was most impressive was the play of Trevor Lacey, as well as the play of State’s big men, specifically Beejay Anya.  Trevor Lacey was just one part of NC State’s accurate shooting performance from downtown, as he went 5-7 from 3 and teammate Ralston Turner was 4-7.  Total, NC State was 10-16 from three, a very impressive game.  Lacey contributed a couple impressive step-back threes, including one to cap off NC State’s run towards the end of the game, extending the lead to a game best 19 points for the Pack.  He shot a very efficient 61.5 percent, and was incredible throughout the entire game.  He and Turner have led the charge offensively for the young NC State team, and did so again yesterday.  Perhaps the biggest performer yesterday was the biggest guy on the court, Beejay Anya.  The big sophomore had the best and most complete game of his career, playing great defense (guarding Okafor a lot), blocking 4 shots and grabbing 6 total rebounds, while scoring 14 points on 75% shooting.  Anya has a way of firing up the home crowd, and did so yesterday, especially with a monster putback dunk at the end of the game to finally put an end to a final push from Duke to stay undefeated.  Duke was able to pull the game within 7 points with a couple minutes left after NC State went up 19, but the Wolfpack held together and completed the big victory. 

                While NC State did dominate the game for the most part, some positives can be drawn from it for Duke.  They did pick up their first loss of the season, leaving Kentucky and Virginia as the only undefeated teams left in the nation, but this can be viewed as a positive.  The extremely young and talented team got a taste of a difficult road matchup, and also figured out that they are not in fact invincible.  This can be important.  The freshmen now know what it is like to lose, and will most definitely learn from the game as a whole.  This is certainly not the end of the world for Duke.  Quinn Cook will continue to lead the team, and Rasheed Sulaimon and other perimeter shooters will play better for the remainder of the season.  Jahlil Okafor will continue to dominate inside, as he is one of the better – if not the best – player in the country. 

                For Mark Gottfried’s team, also a youth-filled team, this is a huge win.  In the midst of a very difficult three game stretch, they were able to pick up a signature win that will help them when they are most likely a bubble team come March.  NC State played its best game of the year, as 9 players scored, and the team shot 55% from the field as a whole.  Everyone played a crucial part in the win, and made big plays to secure the victory. 

                Next up, the Wolfpack will host rival UNC at 7:00 on Wednesday.  This is another opportunity for NC State, in a winnable home game, to insert themselves as a contender in the ACC.  If State plays the same way with the same type of enthusiasm, they will walk out with a win.

                Meanwhile, Duke will get a home matchup against a solid Miami squad that has shown some potential this season.  After a couple tough road games, they will look to win this game before a showdown at Louisville on Saturday, one of their biggest games of the season.  

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Original content, news, predictions, and analysis of all things college sports in North Carolina. Founded October 2014